The question "Agile or Waterfall" sounds like you have to pick between the two approaches. In reality it's a more technical choice, and it depends on one thing: how well known is what you're building.
Where Waterfall works
A predictive approach works when:
- The final outcome is known and every change is expensive
- There are regulatory or contractual requirements
- The sequence of work is physically fixed
Construction is the classic example. You can't change the foundation while working on the fifth floor. Here, detailed planning isn't bureaucracy — it's a necessity.
The same applies to projects where the contract sets a fixed scope and price. On such a project, "clarifying requirements along the way" means lengthy negotiations.
Where Agile works
An adaptive approach works when:
- You don't know exactly what the customer needs
- Change is cheap
- An intermediate result can be shown
Software development is the ideal example. Showing a working version in two weeks and getting feedback is cheaper than discovering six months later that you were building the wrong product.
The Georgian context
Two observations that matter in local practice.
First: Many organizations say they work in Agile, when in reality all they've implemented is daily stand-up meetings. Stand-ups alone are not Agile. Agile means that priorities genuinely change based on feedback.
Second: Most government and donor-funded projects have a fixed scope and budget. Pure Agile won't work on such a project, no matter how much you want it to. The contract determines the approach, not the other way around.
Hybrid
In practice, most projects are hybrid, and that's entirely normal.
A typical model: the overall plan and budget are predictive, while execution is iterative, i.e. staged. For example, an ERP rollout — phases and deadlines are fixed in advance, while the configuration of each module happens in sprints. The PMP exam reflects exactly this reality. Roughly half its questions are set in an agile or hybrid context.
Four questions for the right choice
- Do you know exactly what you're building? If yes — predictive. If no — adaptive.
- What does change cost? If expensive — predictive. If cheap — adaptive.
- What does the contract require? A fixed scope and price essentially rules out pure Agile.
- Can you show an intermediate result? If not, iteration loses its point.
If the answers are mixed, the answer is hybrid.
What matters most
Methodology is a tool, not an identity. A project manager who only knows one approach manages most projects poorly.